Buying Restored Time: Un-Jamming Kenya's Traffic Gridlock
Introduction
Time is undeniably the most valuable asset a person can possess. We dedicate our lives to maximising its use, often caught in the paradox of striving to create more time while inevitably watching it slip away. One of the greatest consumers of time is traffic congestion. Nairobi, ranks among the most congested cities in the world with daily commutes averaging over 1 hour. In extreme cases, they can last up to 12 hours due to poor road infrastructure, accidents, and the growing number of cars on the road.
Traffic jams in Nairobi cost approximately $570,000 per day in 2014 and since then, the situation has worsened as the number of registered vehicles has more than doubled. Road congestion poses multi-level threats, from the individual to national level, affecting economies, health, and aggravating climate change through air pollution. To address these interconnected challenges, Kenya aims to implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems. BRT is a formalised public transport system, consisting of dedicated bus lanes and bus priority at intersections, which reduces road congestion. It enhances the reliability of transport services with off-board fare collection, level boarding, and frequent operations, thereby encouraging greater reliance on public transport. In turn, this reduces private car usage, therefore reducing congestion, accidents, air pollution, and other health threatening effects associated with excessive traffic.
Though this system appears to be an ideal solution, it comes with its challenges. BRT is drastically cheaper than its counterparts like metro systems, but it still requires high initial costs to accommodate new buses, roads, and stations. Moreover, the transport system in Kenya has been largely dependent on informal work. Formalisation through the BRT system could possibly lead to economic losses for the country in the long-term as Kenya is heavily dependent on its informal sector which accounted for 85% of all the new jobs created in 2023.
To examine the plausibility of a successful BRT system in Nairobi, this article considers benefits and challenges and draws lessons from BRT systems in Dakar and Dar es Salaam to provide recommendations for successful implementation in Kenya.
Figure 1: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) components explained. Source
Background and Context
Kenyans are majorly dependent on informal transportation which serve more than 50% of daily commuters. Modes of transport include matatus, three-wheeler tuk-tuks, and two-wheeler boda-bodas, which contribute significantly to the 4,000+ road fatalities recorded annually. On paper, these are regulated by the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA). However, a lack of governance and excessive corruption have resulted in the exploitation of both workers and consumers.
To alleviate these problems, the government aims to formalise the transport system by improving the regulation of matatus through savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOS), as well as developing BRT corridors in Nairobi for fixed routes, fares, and safer conditions. BRT systems increase the reliability and quality of public transport systems, offering cost-effective services for consumers, and providing consistent working hours with reliable income for workers.
The Nairobi Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (NaMATA) was created in 2014 to oversee the development of BRT with five planned BRT corridors across the country. The first pilot project, Simba Line 2, has progressed significantly with several stations at advanced stages of construction and the acquisition of a fleet of buses.
Figure 2: Proposed Bur Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors in Kenya and their status as of 2022. Source
Benefits and Challenges
BRT systems are comparable to light rail or metro systems in improving urban mobility by reducing congestion, increasing passenger capacity, and lowering environmental impact. BRT reduces road traffic by 9%, improves traffic speed by 24%, and reduces the costs of congestion by 18%, pitting it over road expansion as a cost-effective means to traffic decongestion. The effects of BRT systems go beyond the confines of transportation, offering social benefits especially in the labour and real estate markets. A case study in Vancouver, Washington, found that proximity to BRT stations can increase property value beyond construction costs.
In addition to improving the socio-economic status of surrounding areas, BRT buses emit less than half the carbon emissions of gasoline and even electric cars. The environmental and health benefits of decreased air pollution are also expected to increase with the electrification of buses which triple emissions savings.
Figure 3: Bar graph comparing the carbon footprint per kilometer of various transport systems in 2022. Source
While BRT systems offer significant environmental and socio-economic benefits, their implementation in specific contexts like Kenya presents a more complex picture. Despite addressing the major problems with informal transport in Kenya – including congestion pollution, worker exploitation, and financial instability – BRT poses notable challenges including high initial costs and stakeholder opposition. For instance, five proposed BRT lines are projected to cost Kenya over $51 million, with funding shortfalls already causing delays in the construction of Line 2, which was set for completion in 2022 but lacked Ksh 3 billion. Additionally, BRT introduction threatens the job security of around 30,000 informal workers and the estimated 5,000 new jobs wouldn’t cover this deficit. A survey conducted among the matatu workforce in Nairobi found that many felt excluded from BRT planning and rightfully fear that it would eliminate many jobs.
Fewer than five countries on the continent have implemented BRT systems, each striving to alleviate congestion in tangent with rapidly growing populations. However, capital constraints and challenges of formalising predominantly informal systems hindered progress.
Case Study: Lessons from Dar es Salaam and Dakar
In 2016, Dar es Salaam launched its BRT system with 140 buses, and a 21km long corridor with 29 stations. More recently, Dakar, the capital of Senegal, became the first African city to implement an all-electric BRT network in 2023. The system features a fleet of more than 100 electric buses running on a 18.3 km corridor with 23 stations. This is expected to reduce travel time in the city by 50% and cut to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 59,000 tonnes annually. Both capitals, however, experienced challenges with financing, urban displacement and integrating existing informal transport systems, leading to delayed implementation.
Tanzania’s BRT project has grown in stages with a net cost of $932 million, whereas Senegal’s pilot project cost $300 million. Both BRT systems were majorly financed by the World Bank, which contributed more than 50% of the total funding at the requirement of rigorous approval processes that delayed implementation. Additionally, suboptimal fare revenues, resettlement costs for displaced locals, and difficulty in securing private sector participation contributed to setbacks and raised concerns over the sustainability of BRT systems.
Like most developing countries with fast growing populations, Tanzania and Senegal are heavily dependent on the informal sector which accounts for 45% and 36.8% of the economy respectively. Formalisation of deep-rooted systems has proven to be challenging, often resulting in opposition from informal workers whose livelihoods are at stake. A labour impact assessment in Dakar reinforced this truth with 56.6% of the workers surveyed expressing the belief that BRT implementation would result in job losses. However, propositions to primarily involve and recruit informal transport workers in BRT progression could potentially alleviate resistance. Consumers are also heavily affected by these changes. In Dar es Salaam, many faced mobility challenges; particularly low-income individuals who found BRT to be a financial burden rather than an accessible solution.
The Way Forward: Recommendations for Kenya’s BRT Success
In consideration of the challenges Tanzania and Senegal faced in BRT implementation, Kenya’s success is dependent on financial viability, and effective stakeholder engagement. According to the World Bank, a public transport system is financially stable when its revenue streams and funding resources outweigh the costs of implementation and operation. Without adequate financing, the quality and sustainability of BRT systems are at risk. To ensure this, it is advisable for the government to evidence proven experience in managing large infrastructure projects to attract investments, particularly with private partnerships. This should be complemented with effective debt management systems such as currency hedging tools, since funding is majorly in foreign currencies.
Meeting stakeholder needs requires a strongly diplomatic rather than authoritative approach to implementation, seeing as the latter has been met with resistance. Informal transport workers in Dakar, Dar es Salaam, and Nairobi have expressed their views of BRT as a threat to job security and ultimately their lives. South Africa, being the first African country to implement BRT systems in 2009, experienced resistance to a point where gunmen opened fire on a BRT bus. After 14 months of negotiations, relevant stakeholders were finally in agreement through inclusive dialogue, and proactive conflict resolution – a model Kenya can adopt early to avoid similar instability.
Conclusion
BRT corridors are a solution to increasing road congestion and provide multi-dimensional benefits by improving environmental, social, and economical circumstances. However, without strategic planning, challenges like debt and social unrest could undermine success. Lessons from Tanzania and Senegal show that Kenya will be better positioned for successful implementation by securing sustainable funding and ensuring informal workforce integration to make BRT a catalyst for national development.
