East Africa’s Road to Nuclear Energy: A Feasibility Study Assessing Infrastructure and Policy Pathways

A REPORT about assessing the feasibility of nuclear power generation regionally.

Abstract

Nuclear fission, a process that was accidentally discovered to release energy in 1938, now drives nuclear power plants that account for 11% of the world’s electricity generation. Nuclear energy is recognised as a key towards carbon neutrality, endorsed by more than 20 countries and the agreed upon declaration to triple nuclear energy by 2050. Nevertheless, the aftermath of Chernobyl, among other nuclear accidents, have sparked opposition against nuclear power generation.  

East African countries, most notably Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda appear to be impervious to resistances and drawbacks of nuclear power generation with goals to establish plants in the next decade. This report aims to provide a contextualised rationale for nuclear power generation, thus informing policymakers and the wider public. It includes a feasibility analysis of the multifaceted impacts of nuclear power plants in the region, drawing lessons from global examples and a case study on Kenya’s journey towards implementing its first nuclear power plant. 

Introduction

Nuclear power in East Africa is an increasingly high possibility for progression in the region. Conversely, its feasibility garners much attention due to concerns about high costs,  potential for political tension, as well as health and environmental safety. When compared to alternative renewable energy sources, its viability diminishes in light of these aforementioned concerns. 

For example, installing a nuclear power point can cost up to 7.4 times more than new onshore wind or utility solar photovoltaics (PV) plants per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Nuclear energy generation is often regarded as emission free, this perspective overlooks the carbon footprint associated with uranium mining, processing and transportation. Moreover, without robust security and safety measures, nuclear power plants pose significant risks to public safety and the environment through radioactive release.     

Despite this, more than nine Sub-Saharan countries are considering the integration of nuclear power into their energy mix. At the forefront of this effort is Kenya, with plans to have its first operational nuclear power plant by 2034.Whereas Rwanda expects to have a demonstration reactor by 2026 as an intermediate step towards nuclear energy – for the sake of validating the feasibility, efficiency, and safety of nuclear technology. Uganda is currently undertaking uranium exploration and has acquired land for a nuclear power plant with goals to generate energy by 2031. Other countries including Sudan, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo – home to Africa’s first nuclear power plant – are in earlier stages of nuclear energy development.  

Notably, the countries leading in nuclear energy development also have energy mixes dominated by renewables. In Kenya, approximately 90% of the electricity is derived from renewable energy sources including geothermal, 45%, hydropower, 20%, wind, 17%, and solar,3%. Rwanda’s electricity generation is dominated by hydropower, contributing approximately 50%, with solar accounting for around 8%. Similarly, Uganda relies heavily on hydropower for 86% of its energy, while solar makes up less than 3%.  

The diversification of energy sources is a reasonable direction for these countries, as it is safe to consider the drawbacks of heavily relying on one kind of source. For example, with unpredictable rain patterns in East Africa’s projected future, hydropower is bound to become less dependable and ultimately hamper socio-economic development. Additionally, hydropower projects can exacerbate geopolitical tension if countries cannot cooperate on water management strategies, further necessitating the need for diversification.  

Nuclear energy being an alternative, can potentially promote economic growth without drastically increasing carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂). Nuclear energy plants are also relatively reliable as they’re not limited to transient periods of energy resource availability. Unlike solar and wind power which vary in availability, thus failing to meet fluctuating energy demands especially in the absence of suitable energy storage facilities. Moreover, worldwide efforts to improve nuclear power technology will ultimately reduce drawbacks in sustainability, safety and nuclear waste disposal. Nonetheless, the challenges potentially outweigh the benefits for East African countries, especially high initial costs, safety concerns, the advanced resources necessary for nuclear waste management, and geopolitical tensions. 

Therefore, this report examines the rationale for pursuing nuclear energy in East African countries and compares various strategies for achieving carbon neutrality and energy reliability. Kenya's first nuclear power plant in Kifili County will serve as a case study to contextualise the analysis. The report will evaluate the technical, economic, environmental, social, and political impacts of nuclear power plants in the region, drawing lessons from global nuclear programmes. It offers strategic recommendations to guide nuclear energy adoption, aiming to inform policymakers and engage the public, who are directly impacted by such decisions.  

Methodology

This report will consult an array of sources to establish an accurate understanding of the viability of nuclear energy in East Africa. Reputable international organisations like the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Bank will be heavily relied upon as secondary sources. Additionally, institutions with strong research output on the topic such as Columbia University, the Stanford Group, World Nuclear News, and the Nuclear Business Platform will serve as founts of data for this initial analysis. 

Firstly, an analysis of East Africa’s current energy landscape will identify the present-day strengths and shortcomings of existing energy systems, with added focus on their capacity to meet the region’s energy needs and their net environmental impact. Other socioeconomic impacts of the energy systems will also be investigated, in order to identify criteria for comparison against nuclear energy.  

Following this, a rationale for nuclear energy in East Africa will be constructed, based on an overview of nuclear energy generation processes. Advantages of nuclear energy for East African economies and communities will be explored, as will the disadvantages and drawbacks that run parallel to these potential gains. 

After this, a thorough feasibility study will be carried out, examining the viability of nuclear energy in the region from technical, economic, environmental, social and political perspectives. The planned nuclear power plant in Kenya will serve as an especially useful example on which conjectures about feasibility in the region as a whole will be based. 

Finally, case studies on past and present global nuclear programmes will be used to make recommendations on the most beneficial paths forward for East Africa with regards to nuclear energy.  

While this methodology thoroughly scrutinises the viability of nuclear energy in East Africa, it is limited in that it employs only secondary sources and research to draw its conclusions. Therefore, it is vulnerable to potential bias and errors from the sources consulted. These potential biases/errors were mitigated by incorporation of viewpoints from a range of sources published across multiple regions and spanning the spectrum of ideological standings on the matter, as well as a greater reliance on more objective sources like reputable international agencies.

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